I'm a great fan of Barack Obama. I am from Hawaii after all and like his parents, I met my wife at the University of Hawaii.
But it is so clear that the media has it out for Hillary Clinton. MSNBC in particular, CNN too, are so biased against the Senator and former First Lady. Chris Matthews, who normally likes anything in a skirt, has even turned against her.
They decide. We Vote.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Fed Panics
Markets were closed in the US to celebrate Martin Luther King's birthday, but they were busy around the world. In Asia and India in particular, the electronic stock markets were crashing. The futures trading on the Dow Jones Industrial Index indicated that the "Dow" could be trading as much as 650 points lower when the US markets resumed trading on Monday. Tipped off by the worsening economic indicators and a US7.2 billion fraud case in France, the voting members of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) held an emergency teleconference on Monday night. In the morning, before the markets opened, they released a statement that the Federal Reserve would cut its overnight lending rate by 75 basis points to 3.50%, citing continuing credit problems and GLOBAL PANIC (not). When 9:30AM came about, the traders at the New York Fed went to work buying up bonds, thus injecting money into the banking system and thereby adjusting the Fed Funds interest rate down to the target of 3.5%.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Spend and Borrow: The Reagan Legacy and the Republican Addiction
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved deficits didn't matter," argued Vice-President Dick Cheney in a discussion about raising taxes. As reported in Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neil's book, The Price of Loyalty , the VP wanted to reduce taxes further after winning reelection in 2004 to reward their supporters and diminish the US government. The Reagan political solution: to borrow from Paul (investor class and technocracy) to pay Peter (entitlement voters and the military industrial complex) became the Republican addiction taken up by Bush I and later the Bush-Cheney administration. "Borrow and spend" haunts the Republican Party to this day.
READ MY LIPS, NO NEW TEXANS! The popular bumper sticker during the 2000 election made light of Bush I's pledge of "No New Taxes" during the 1988 Republican convention where the Sr. received the Presidential nomination. Not only did he break his pledge and raise taxes (Well, Reagan did it 13 times) but the deficits ballooned to their highest levels in history. Reagan's "no pain policy" was effective politics but problematic economics and led to the rise of EDS founder Ross Perot, who campaigned for the Presidency on the promise of restoring fiscal responsibility and effectively ensured the election of Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton.
When the Clinton Administration took to their offices in early 1993, the new administration was looking at budget deficits approaching a half a trillion dollars a year by 2000. The massive government spending and tax cuts of the 1980s had resulted in unprecedented government debt and yearly budget interest payments that exceeded US$185 billion in 1990, up substantially from the $52.5 billion a year when Ronald Reagan took office in 1981. By the time Clinton could produce the first budget surplus since before the Vietnam War, interest payments would roughly equal the budget for national defense.
Bush II has had the advantage of a larger GDP based on the 1990s boom but quickly squandered the debt-busting opportunity. In fact, the surpluses of the Clinton years began to make the bond markets nervous. Bush tax cuts combined with the dotcom and telecom crashes quickly resolved this "problem" and the 9/11 induced wars restored the "borrow and spend" model. One lucky recipient was Cheney's former company Halliburton, which was nearly destroyed by Cheney's inept management, marked most significant by the purchase of a company with major asbestos liabilities. Contracts for the Middle East wars restored the company to profitability despite its huge payouts.
Some of the sad implications of this policy are the huge debts, the lack of respect for civic service, and the poor performance of government officials. No one really knows how big the government debt has grown. A reasonable estimate is about $9 trillion dollars and for the last 2 years the amount has been growing at about $1.5 billion a day. The discourse on taxes has also denigrated civic responsibilities. While no one wants to pay exorbitant taxes, many people recognize that government provides services that are worthwhile and are willing to pay their fair share. But the "spend and borrow" philosophy belittles all taxes, preferring to pass on the burden to the unborn. Finally, while government grows, belief in the value of government action diminishes. You have to wonder how much of President Bush's incompetence is really the result of a negative attitude about the positive value of government action. From 9/11 to the FDA's poor record on food inspections to the pitiful war planning, the record of this administration has been atrocious. The Reagan legacy left behind a new civic malaise that has eaten at the core of American society and especially its government.
READ MY LIPS, NO NEW TEXANS! The popular bumper sticker during the 2000 election made light of Bush I's pledge of "No New Taxes" during the 1988 Republican convention where the Sr. received the Presidential nomination. Not only did he break his pledge and raise taxes (Well, Reagan did it 13 times) but the deficits ballooned to their highest levels in history. Reagan's "no pain policy" was effective politics but problematic economics and led to the rise of EDS founder Ross Perot, who campaigned for the Presidency on the promise of restoring fiscal responsibility and effectively ensured the election of Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton.
When the Clinton Administration took to their offices in early 1993, the new administration was looking at budget deficits approaching a half a trillion dollars a year by 2000. The massive government spending and tax cuts of the 1980s had resulted in unprecedented government debt and yearly budget interest payments that exceeded US$185 billion in 1990, up substantially from the $52.5 billion a year when Ronald Reagan took office in 1981. By the time Clinton could produce the first budget surplus since before the Vietnam War, interest payments would roughly equal the budget for national defense.
Bush II has had the advantage of a larger GDP based on the 1990s boom but quickly squandered the debt-busting opportunity. In fact, the surpluses of the Clinton years began to make the bond markets nervous. Bush tax cuts combined with the dotcom and telecom crashes quickly resolved this "problem" and the 9/11 induced wars restored the "borrow and spend" model. One lucky recipient was Cheney's former company Halliburton, which was nearly destroyed by Cheney's inept management, marked most significant by the purchase of a company with major asbestos liabilities. Contracts for the Middle East wars restored the company to profitability despite its huge payouts.
Some of the sad implications of this policy are the huge debts, the lack of respect for civic service, and the poor performance of government officials. No one really knows how big the government debt has grown. A reasonable estimate is about $9 trillion dollars and for the last 2 years the amount has been growing at about $1.5 billion a day. The discourse on taxes has also denigrated civic responsibilities. While no one wants to pay exorbitant taxes, many people recognize that government provides services that are worthwhile and are willing to pay their fair share. But the "spend and borrow" philosophy belittles all taxes, preferring to pass on the burden to the unborn. Finally, while government grows, belief in the value of government action diminishes. You have to wonder how much of President Bush's incompetence is really the result of a negative attitude about the positive value of government action. From 9/11 to the FDA's poor record on food inspections to the pitiful war planning, the record of this administration has been atrocious. The Reagan legacy left behind a new civic malaise that has eaten at the core of American society and especially its government.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
35 MPG?
Just before Christmas 2007, President Bush signed a new energy bill whose major claim was to set fuel mileage requirements to--35 miles per gallon--by 2020. Can you believe it? This is like President Kennedy saying the US will put a man in orbit by the end of the century! (He actually called for putting a man on the Moon by the end of the 1960s). Dah! With crude oil near $100 a barrel and with what former Fed Chair Greenspan called a war for oil going on in the Middle East, you would think the administration would act with a little more urgency. Instead the President was more keen on promoting the importance of nuclear energy.
The President is partially right--the key is electricity--not fuel. Fuel is limited-electricity is not. The President seems to want to ensure that the established powers - oil companies mainly find a way to adapt to the limitations of their industries and find new ways to enslave the American public to their profit structure. Wrong! Just as the President never got the "internets" he doesn't comprehend the Internet model for the transformation of America's energetic infrastructure.
Electricity is fleeting-it doesn't store well and it travels inefficiently. But it can be produced everywhere and through different means. Solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric are just some of various means of generating electricity. But lets stick with cars - our most ravenous from of petrochemical consumption. The move to the hybrid is obviously the transition we need to make. But most people don't realize that regenerative braking - the technology that turns a car's brakes into an electricity generator - is a very promising option that actually makes driving your car in a city more gas efficient! The more you brake, the more electricity you produce! Test cars are getting 50 mpg in the country and 70 mpg in the city.
So lets move to hybrids and the electric car. But let the gas produce most of the electricity for now until the nation's electrical grid makes the transition to a more diffused production system that will empower both America's urban and rural areas - instead of dictatorships abroad.
The 810-page energy bill does include nearly $100 million for battery research. Not exactly the Manhattan Project, but the government needs its money for its billion-dollar a day war for oil. Still battery technology is absolutely critical. Just look at my Sony Walkman (Yes, I don't have an iPod) I get about 30 hours of music for each charge! I took it to Hawaii for 10 days and didn't even have to recharge it once.
What seems to be most important to the administration is to replace our current addictions with new ones. Instead of transforming the electrical grid into an internet-like space for e-commerce (energy commerce,)the government seems to want to ensure that established powers are able resuscitate their profit pipelines but configuring the energy infrastructure to their own interests. To avoid this, the government must call for 100 mpg vehicles by 2015. This will shake up the system, introduce "creative destruction" and let the government more the energy markets out of their current state of market failure and help develop a nation-wide system of true energy markets.
The President is partially right--the key is electricity--not fuel. Fuel is limited-electricity is not. The President seems to want to ensure that the established powers - oil companies mainly find a way to adapt to the limitations of their industries and find new ways to enslave the American public to their profit structure. Wrong! Just as the President never got the "internets" he doesn't comprehend the Internet model for the transformation of America's energetic infrastructure.
Electricity is fleeting-it doesn't store well and it travels inefficiently. But it can be produced everywhere and through different means. Solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric are just some of various means of generating electricity. But lets stick with cars - our most ravenous from of petrochemical consumption. The move to the hybrid is obviously the transition we need to make. But most people don't realize that regenerative braking - the technology that turns a car's brakes into an electricity generator - is a very promising option that actually makes driving your car in a city more gas efficient! The more you brake, the more electricity you produce! Test cars are getting 50 mpg in the country and 70 mpg in the city.
So lets move to hybrids and the electric car. But let the gas produce most of the electricity for now until the nation's electrical grid makes the transition to a more diffused production system that will empower both America's urban and rural areas - instead of dictatorships abroad.
The 810-page energy bill does include nearly $100 million for battery research. Not exactly the Manhattan Project, but the government needs its money for its billion-dollar a day war for oil. Still battery technology is absolutely critical. Just look at my Sony Walkman (Yes, I don't have an iPod) I get about 30 hours of music for each charge! I took it to Hawaii for 10 days and didn't even have to recharge it once.
What seems to be most important to the administration is to replace our current addictions with new ones. Instead of transforming the electrical grid into an internet-like space for e-commerce (energy commerce,)the government seems to want to ensure that established powers are able resuscitate their profit pipelines but configuring the energy infrastructure to their own interests. To avoid this, the government must call for 100 mpg vehicles by 2015. This will shake up the system, introduce "creative destruction" and let the government more the energy markets out of their current state of market failure and help develop a nation-wide system of true energy markets.
Monday, November 26, 2007
Hawaii and the BCS (Big Cash System)
Hawaii is proving to be the exception that proves the rule in the current college football system -- and laughing all the way to the bank. The BCS, or what I call "The Big Cash System" has been under investigation for its monopolistic practices. Critics, including many in Congress, see the BCS as a way for the major football schools and conferences to maintain a competitive advantage. While some of the minor bowls barely reimburse schools for the expenses, the big bowls bring in millions for the participating schools and split up a big chunk among the conference as well. Ferd Lewis of the Honolulu Advertiser explains:
Well, the Hawaii Warriors got into the Sugar Bowl on Jan 1 by going undefeated at 12-0. They play a somewhat miffed University of Georgia who thought they should have been heading to the BCS Championship against Ohio State. Georgia is good, but they will have their hands full against the scrappiest team of the year. Colt Brennan, rejected in New York, with the Heisman trophy going to SEC sophomore darling Tim Tebow, is going to be ready to roll. And with three (3) All-American receivers, Jason Rivers, Devone Bess, and Ryan Grice-Mullin, they are ready to rock as well. All-American Hercules Satele anchors the O-line missing 3 starters now in the NFL.
But lest you think its the same pass-happy Hawaii of the Timmy Chang era, they rock on defense this year as well. Greg McMackin, the Defensive Coordinator of the Miami Hurricanes and Seattle Seahawks, returned to Hawaii to help the Warriors to another WAC title. He was there in the late 1990s for one season when Hawaii tied for the WAC top slot.
So tune into Fox on Jan 1 for a primetime worthy game. And watch the BCS system cringe as another team emerges from the margins of college football to challenge the dominant stranglehold on bowl money.
Most people believe, incorrectly, the BCS was designed to determine a national championship. It wasn't. It is supposed to assure that the lion's share of the postseason money — more than $100 million — stays in the pockets of the power conferences. For this the best BCS minds had put together a formula that was supposed to largely fence out the lower classes but leave just enough room to mollify Congress and monopoly-charging lawyers.
Well, the Hawaii Warriors got into the Sugar Bowl on Jan 1 by going undefeated at 12-0. They play a somewhat miffed University of Georgia who thought they should have been heading to the BCS Championship against Ohio State. Georgia is good, but they will have their hands full against the scrappiest team of the year. Colt Brennan, rejected in New York, with the Heisman trophy going to SEC sophomore darling Tim Tebow, is going to be ready to roll. And with three (3) All-American receivers, Jason Rivers, Devone Bess, and Ryan Grice-Mullin, they are ready to rock as well. All-American Hercules Satele anchors the O-line missing 3 starters now in the NFL.
But lest you think its the same pass-happy Hawaii of the Timmy Chang era, they rock on defense this year as well. Greg McMackin, the Defensive Coordinator of the Miami Hurricanes and Seattle Seahawks, returned to Hawaii to help the Warriors to another WAC title. He was there in the late 1990s for one season when Hawaii tied for the WAC top slot.
So tune into Fox on Jan 1 for a primetime worthy game. And watch the BCS system cringe as another team emerges from the margins of college football to challenge the dominant stranglehold on bowl money.
Friday, November 2, 2007
Gore Invented the Internet, Rubin Financed IT
“During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the Internet.”
- Vice-President Al Gore on CNN
They now have a term for it - "Swiftboating" a reference to extreme personal attacks and outright lying to gain political advantage that came into usage after the campaign to destroy Democratic candidate John Kerry in the 2004 Presidential election. But in the 2000 election Al Gore was also smeared and ridiculed for his "lies". The above quote was turned in a claim that Gore had said that he "invented the Internet". Here's my (brief) version of how the Internet came about and Gore's role in it.
The Internet's origins are usually traced to the development of the ARPANET, the first packet-switching network that went online for the first time a few weeks after the first Moon landing in 1969. But the Internet really became the Internet years later when new protocols were developed to connect the University of Hawaii via a satellite.
But the real transformation occurred in the 1980s when Gore took the initiative, as he said to help connect supercomputers, around the country. The Supercomputing Study Act of 1986 and other Gore-supported legislation got the National Science Foundation to support linkages between supercomputing facilities at universities and research centers around the country using the ARPANET technologies. Students at one of those supercomputing centers designed a visualization application called Mosiac that was the precursor to Netscape and thus all browser interfaces to the World Wide Web. From there the Internet took off and garnered the attention of the private sphere as well.
Enter the financial markets. By the early 1990s, the financial world had forgotten the implosion of October 1987 and was busting at the seams with institutional money. The telecom market had already been attracting money in the wake of the AT&T breakup and the growth of cable TV and wireless communications. But the Netscape IPO in August of 1995 was arguably the beginning of the "dot.com" frenzy, one of the most extraordinary speculative episodes in stock market history punctuated just a little over a year later with Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" speech.
Despite Greenspan's warning, stock markets such as the NYSE and the NASDAQ continued to boom and one of the main reasons was global instability in the currency markets and the flight to the "safe" markets of the US. The issue can be traced to the value of the Japanese yen which was reaching highs in 1995 of when it could buy a US dollar for less than 80 yen, roughly making the Japanese economy worth as much as that of the United States. The US attempt to devalue the yen, orchestrated by Robert Rubin would, ignited the financial shot that was heard around the world. The yen lost nearly half its value over the course of the next three years.
The problem was that many countries around the world had pegged their currencies to the US dollar which was suddenly appreciating - very rapidly. (The other side of the JPN/USD equation) The newly termed "Emerging Markets", heavily dependent on exports to the US saw the prices of their exports rise. These countries tried to maintain their currency pegs but were attacked by hedge funds speculating on the currency imbalance. The "Asian Financial Crisis" emerged and spread to Latin America and then Russia by 1998.
The international financial crisis made the US markets the safe haven for world's wealth. The US eased the transition by "bailing out" these countries, in effect, supporting the transfer of wealth back to the US markets and into the dot.coms and telecom industries. The NASDAQ climbed from under 1000 in 1995 to over 5,100 at its peak in early 2000 making Cisco and Microsoft the largest companies in the world (by capitalization). Incidentally, this was time the first accusations of Gore claiming to have "invented the Internet" emerged.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Media Ecology List
Here is a YouTube playlist on the topic of "media ecology" starting with former NYU professor Neil Postman, a classic figure in the analysis and criticism of media and information technologies.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Fed Drops Interest Rates - Again
Watching inflation or the stock market? That was the question after the FOMC decided to drop both the Fed Funds Rate and the Discount rate by a quarter basis point to 4.5% and 5% respectively.
The move was a little surprising after GDP reports showed a decent 3.9% growth on an annual basis. But credit concerns still predominated as the subprime mess still looms across the economic horizon and a growing economy will be dependent on readily access to cheap loans.
Of course, our export economy is also addicted to the cheap dollar, one of the reasons for the decent GDP figures. No surprise that the lower interest rates pushed a barrel of crude to nearly $100 as the dollar weakened on the news of the Fed decision.
The move was a little surprising after GDP reports showed a decent 3.9% growth on an annual basis. But credit concerns still predominated as the subprime mess still looms across the economic horizon and a growing economy will be dependent on readily access to cheap loans.
Of course, our export economy is also addicted to the cheap dollar, one of the reasons for the decent GDP figures. No surprise that the lower interest rates pushed a barrel of crude to nearly $100 as the dollar weakened on the news of the Fed decision.
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
FOX with a Ticker
In the aftermath of News Corp buying Dow-Jones and its Wall Street Journal, I was curious about the premiere of Fox Business News. I'm not the biggest fan of the WSJ but I do have respect for its tradition and the role of financial journalism in general. But after watching some of the first two days of FBN, I wonder if two people are rolling in their graves.
The company that Charles Henry Dow and Edward Davis Jones created in the post-Civil War era when the US corporation was emerging as a major economic power is almost synonymous with America's economic rise. Dow and Jones first started with the Customer's Afternoon Letter and in July of 1884 the created the first Dow Jones Industrial Average with 11 companies. The WSJ was created in July of 1889 with the explicit goal of offering news, not opinion.
Well, it seems its the same old Fox news. "We Report, You Decide" - give me a break. One indication is that they are rehashing David Asman, who seems to have his microphone so far up... well never mind on that. Asman is proficient in the language of cynicism, the chief currency of Fox News.
Of course we should have expected this, when Murdoch himself announced that the new network would be “more business friendly than CNBC”. I guess that is like Fox News being more administration friendly. CNBC, the financial news network owned by GE, is quick to “leap on every scandal,” said the NewsCorp chief according to according to BusinessWeek.com, whose parent, McGraw-Hill is no small corporation itself. Well, I don't know about you, but I'm sure glad CNBC jumped on that little scandal called WORLDCOM.
Well, perhaps the market is giving us a vote on the FBN. Down 248 points - from 14,160 Monday morning to 13,913 today - is one indication that Fox Business News is getting the thumbs down from Wall Street.
The company that Charles Henry Dow and Edward Davis Jones created in the post-Civil War era when the US corporation was emerging as a major economic power is almost synonymous with America's economic rise. Dow and Jones first started with the Customer's Afternoon Letter and in July of 1884 the created the first Dow Jones Industrial Average with 11 companies. The WSJ was created in July of 1889 with the explicit goal of offering news, not opinion.
Well, it seems its the same old Fox news. "We Report, You Decide" - give me a break. One indication is that they are rehashing David Asman, who seems to have his microphone so far up... well never mind on that. Asman is proficient in the language of cynicism, the chief currency of Fox News.
Of course we should have expected this, when Murdoch himself announced that the new network would be “more business friendly than CNBC”. I guess that is like Fox News being more administration friendly. CNBC, the financial news network owned by GE, is quick to “leap on every scandal,” said the NewsCorp chief according to according to BusinessWeek.com, whose parent, McGraw-Hill is no small corporation itself. Well, I don't know about you, but I'm sure glad CNBC jumped on that little scandal called WORLDCOM.
Well, perhaps the market is giving us a vote on the FBN. Down 248 points - from 14,160 Monday morning to 13,913 today - is one indication that Fox Business News is getting the thumbs down from Wall Street.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
The Politics of Global Warming
Congratulations to Al Gore for sharing the Nobel Peace Prize! And relax, the Supreme Court did not award it to George Bush.
The issue of global warming is a curious one politically as it places science at the fulcrum of public policy. This places the Right on one side frightened over a possible change in the status quo and enhanced economic and social power going to government. The Progressive Left sees global warming as a vehicle to address a range of problems from dependence on oil, carbon-based pollution, and the possibilities of new industries emerging around alternative energy.
Big Oil and other entrenched powers such as American auto and electricity industry have a lot to lose if the public embraces the threat of global warming. Whereas the war on terrorism has been good for the oil industry, the war on warming will be its undoing--unless it can stall it until it can find ways to capitalize on it.
The issue of global warming is a curious one politically as it places science at the fulcrum of public policy. This places the Right on one side frightened over a possible change in the status quo and enhanced economic and social power going to government. The Progressive Left sees global warming as a vehicle to address a range of problems from dependence on oil, carbon-based pollution, and the possibilities of new industries emerging around alternative energy.
Big Oil and other entrenched powers such as American auto and electricity industry have a lot to lose if the public embraces the threat of global warming. Whereas the war on terrorism has been good for the oil industry, the war on warming will be its undoing--unless it can stall it until it can find ways to capitalize on it.
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
The "Charge it to My Kids" Republicans
Its no wonder that the Republicans are trying so hard to kill the inheritance tax (Otherwise known as the "death tax"), they know that their kids are going to need all the help they can get to pay the tab they have been running up. Thomas Friedman came up with the catchy but apt phrase after watching Dana Perino, the White House press secretary, fumble out this answer in response to a question about raising taxes to fund the war. “Does anyone seriously believe that the Democrats are going to end these new taxes that they’re asking the American people to pay at a time when it’s not necessary to pay them?” added Ms. Perino. “I just think it’s completely fiscally irresponsible.” In other words, why should I pay taxes now if I can just borrow the money for the war from China or Japan and have my kids pay the bill.
Read more:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/07/opinion/07friedman.html?ref=opinion
Read more:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/07/opinion/07friedman.html?ref=opinion
Sunday, September 23, 2007
The REAL Social Security
I have been sympathetic to President Bush's overtures about privatizing social security, but this week he made his opinions public about the real social security - taking care of our children. On Thursday he threatened to veto legislation to expand health care for children. One of the best things this country can do solve its expanding programs is to ensure a new generation of healthy, bright, and well-educated. When the baby-boomer generation is getting their third heart by-pass operation, they better make sure they have a cadre of competent, smart, and productive young people working to pay the bills. That starts with good medical care while they have developing their brains and their bodies.
So I asked my brother about this issue. He is a medical doctor and a bit more clued into health issues than myself. Dah, the reason for the veto is that the bill wants to pay for child health care with a tobacco tax.
Politics over people - little people this time - George havn't you learned anything?
So I asked my brother about this issue. He is a medical doctor and a bit more clued into health issues than myself. Dah, the reason for the veto is that the bill wants to pay for child health care with a tobacco tax.
Politics over people - little people this time - George havn't you learned anything?
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